Handicapping the "Top" 12 in American Idol 9

Well we've taken out lumps in the predictions and we've collated all the grades together thus far. Let's see who should be lasting much longer, and who is lucky to still be here (a bunch). From worst to my pick for champion, here's the handicapped Top 12 of American Idol 9.

12. Tim - F/D/C
Can't fault a former reject for making the most of his opportunity, and he has been improving. However, he was left out for a reason and is only really riding on his likeability plus VFTW, which is a strong voting block that may have him around another month.

11. Didi - D/F/C
Didi and Todrick were the two I thought were going home going into the Top 16, but both rocked and it saved Didi. However, she's been consistently bad and boring and probably is a favorite to go home in the first week of the finals.

10. Lee - C/D/D
The judges say he's got the best voice in the guys, but I'm not buying it. Have they heard Michael? This guy is so overrated and should be headed home before the tour unless he improves drastically.

9. Paige - C/C/F
Hovering around mediocre until last week, Paige is not impressing despite her clear vocal chops. But this is not a potential contest, it's a singing contest. And she's not doing well in that department.

8. Katie - B/C/D
Another person who should have gone home because she's not improving. However, someone will get a long reprieve and I feel like jamming the fact that's she's 16 down our throats will make people vote for her.

7. Lacey - C/D/C
Yes the girls are clearly better as they fight for the bottom six spots again in the top 12. Lacey may go a lot sooner than this assuming the no talent buttclowns beneath her on the list get some pity votes like they have so far.

6. Andrew - B/B/C
Another guy who may go home a little earlier than I put him on the list, but he's in the middle because he was the early leader of the pack and perhaps can recapture the magic. He should be safe for a little while longer, but once we get down to 7-8 he will need to be on his game every week and I do not think he can be. Minimal chance of a winner here, but that's better than the last six. (1%)

5. Siobhan - B/B/B
The girl with the nosering and the interesting faces should land right here. She is clearly better than the bottom six on this list, but does not compare to the top 4. So if fate has any justice, she will end up here in all likelihood as a good outside the box contestant. Very very outside shot she makes it to the top. (3%)

4. Aaron - B/D/C
Let's face it, this kid is Archuleta. I don't like him, but he's one of four people with a real shot to take home the crown. Just like Kris Allen and David Archuleta knocked out truly talented artists out, Aaron has the tweentard favorite feel and that could pump him to the final 2 and maybe the championship. However, he is the least deserving of the top 4. (10%)

3. Casey - A/B/B
Now we get to the interesting trio of true frontrunners. I've been a little too generous in looking back on these grades, although Casey has had the best performance of anybody still here. Nevertheless, Casey is kind of fading a bit compared to the other two and I just think he's a bit too rocker and a bit too slick to ride the heels of David Cook. He is probably the most marketable of the lot, but I'll give him a 20% chance of win.

2. Michael - B/B/B
Now I suspect this will likely be the favorite of most of America, but when has the favorite going into the semifinals or finals ever actually won? Second place is usually where the Archulators and Glamberts end up. So we'll play it safe and say while he's probably a 80% chance for the finals, he is less likely to win (25%).

1. Crystal - C/B/B
I've graded her harshly, and I do not like her look. However, she was clearly head and shoulders above the girls, which has helped her stand out while the top guys have been fighting for attention. I think this will give her the boost she needs to be our most likely winner, although there's no doubt the three better-looking contestants beneath her could drop her as low as fourth. (40%)

So there you go. It will not work out this way, but I suspect the top 4 is pretty solid to be 3/4 right at a minimum. Lots of slackers in this top 12.